{"id":10525,"date":"2025-11-20T20:28:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-20T20:28:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/?p=10525"},"modified":"2025-11-20T20:28:30","modified_gmt":"2025-11-20T20:28:30","slug":"nfl-week-12-picks-against-the-spread-cowboys-keep-rolling-chiefs-keep-skidding","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/?p=10525","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 12 picks against the spread: Cowboys keep rolling, Chiefs keep skidding"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div><i><span>The Athletic has live coverage of <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/live-blogs\/bills-vs-texans-live-score-updates-nfl-tnf-result\/Y1rjJ8gu3tmE\/\"><i><span>Bills vs. Texans<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span> in NFL \u2018Thursday Night Football.\u2019<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>Still can\u2019t believe I saw Bo Nix outplay Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter of a tie game.<\/p>\n<p>But a lot has been hard to predict this season. Like Matthew Stafford getting epidurals in August and being the MVP favorite in November. Or the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears leading their divisions (the Patriots and Colts by multiple games).<\/p>\n<p>The Dallas Cowboys still being relevant after giving away Micah Parsons is also surprising. I don\u2019t put much stock into their win Monday night \u2014 the Las Vegas Raiders\u2019 coaching and quarterback play somehow got worse this season \u2014 but Dallas\u2019 offense is legit. Dak Prescott is completing a career-high 70 percent of his passes and has 22 total touchdowns, thanks in large part to two great acquisitions. Javonte Williams is averaging 5.0 yards a pop and has been a great pass-blocker (just ask Maxx Crosby), while you could make a case that George Pickens, not CeeDee Lamb, is the Cowboys\u2019 No. 1 receiver.<\/p>\n<p>Pickens refuses to be tackled and is on pace for 99 catches and 1,543 yards and 12 touchdowns.<\/p>\n<p>I, also, refuse to be dragged down. I went 8-5-2 against the spread last week, with two of the losses coming by a combined one point, and nailed the upset pick, as the Jacksonville Jaguars squeaked out a 29-point win over the Los Angeles Chargers.<\/p>\n<p>Can I get over .500 overall this week? Well \u2026 I am counting on a couple more surprises.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last week\u2019s record: <\/strong>8-5-2\u00a0against the spread, 3-2 on best bets<\/p>\n<p><strong>Season record:\u00a0<\/strong>78-80-6 against the spread, 28-27 on best bets<\/p>\n<p><i>All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made.\u00a0<\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/sports.betmgm.com\/en\/sports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" data-index=\"10\"><i>Click here<\/i><\/a>\u00a0<i>for live odds.<\/i><\/p>\n<h2>Buffalo Bills (-6) at Houston Texans | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime<\/h2>\n<p>Underdogs have been the ticket on Thursdays, and I am always looking for a reason to back the savage Texans defense. There are two. First off, the Bills have lost five consecutive games in Houston, including three with Josh Allen \u2014 last season, he completed 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards in a 23-20 loss to the Texans.<\/p>\n<p>Also, the Bills\u2019 defense is not very good, and while no one is saying Davis Mills is anywhere close to C.J. Stroud, he makes sure to get top-five receiver Nico Collins involved. Collins has 16 catches on 25 targets for 228 yards the past two weeks with Mills and will help the Texans stay close.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Texans<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/h2>\n<p>Here\u2019s a sure thing: The Lions have covered the spread in 13 consecutive games coming off a loss. Jared Goff gets to return indoors after looking miserable in the cold, and the Lions are 4-0 against the spread with Goff when favored by 10 or more points.<\/p>\n<p>But sure things don\u2019t interest me. Give me the Giants. Lost in the coaching change and Jaxson Dart\u2019s concussion has been the improved play of their offensive line after years of being a turnstile. The Giants rank 12th in pressure rate allowed since Week 9 (33 percent), up from 24th before that, and they\u2019re fourth in yards before contact per rush (2.0) since Week 9, up from 14th. Add in a tough defensive line, and their work in the trenches keeps the Giants in the game.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Giants\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/h2>\n<p>I am a sick puppy. You give me Tyrod Taylor and 13.5 points against an overrated Ravens team with Lamar Jackson at less than 80 percent, and I am going to take Taylor every time.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Jets\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>New England Patriots (-8.5) at Cincinnati Bengals | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/h2>\n<p>The Patriots keep marching on. Drake Maye gets to go against the worst defense the NFL has seen in years \u2014 the Bengals have given up 154 points in their past four home games \u2014 and Joe Flacco has to make do without just throwing the ball somewhere in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6812843\/2025\/11\/17\/jamarr-chase-suspended-spit-jalen-ramsey-nfl\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ja\u2019Marr Chase\u2019s<\/a> direction.<\/p>\n<p>Wait \u2026 is there a chance Joe Burrow plays, rather than wait for Thanksgiving? If so, I\u2019d let the line come down and still pick the Patriots. There\u2019s no chance New England will be caught napping.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Patriots\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/h2>\n<p>At this point, Mason Rudolph is not a very big drop-off from Aaron Rodgers, so we could get some value there. All seven of the Bears\u2019 wins have come against teams that currently have losing records. I like Pittsburgh <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6821358\/2025\/11\/19\/aaron-rodgers-broken-wrist-injury-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">whether Rodgers plays or not<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Steelers\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/h2>\n<p>Everyone is shoveling dirt on the Chiefs, so naturally, we\u2019d want to pivot and back them here. After all, they might be the best 5-5 team ever \u2014 and they are <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SandoNFL\/status\/1990480186815779184\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">better than last year\u2019s 9-1 team<\/a> was at this time. Plus, Patrick Mahomes has lost back-to-back games only six times in his career, and the Chiefs are 5-0 straight up and 4-0-1 ATS in the games after that.<\/p>\n<p>Phooey. We picked the Broncos against the Chiefs last week because we thought it was a field goal game either way, and we feel the same way about Jonathan Taylor and the best offense in football (3.17 points per drive, 0.02 behind the 2007 Patriots for the best mark since at least 2000).<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Colts\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_6813668\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\">\n<div class=\"wp-caption-image-container\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/GettyImages-2246499557.jpg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\"><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"inline-credits\">\n<p>\n      <span class=\"credits-text\">The Chiefs have their worst record through 10 games with Patrick Mahomes as the starter. Could it get worse in Week 12? (Cooper Neill \/ Getty Images)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/h2>\n<p>I don\u2019t trust the Packers, especially without Josh Jacobs. The Vikings swept them last season, as Aaron Jones went for 216 total yards rushing and receiving, and he is fresh. Maybe J.J. McCarthy\u2019s alter ego \u2014 what was it, \u201cNine\u201d? \u2014 comes out in the cold and hits a wide-open Justin Jefferson three or four times, too. But this pick is about Jones and Jordan Mason running the ball and coordinator Brian Flores slowing down a hobbled Packers offense.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Vikings\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) at Tennessee Titans | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/h2>\n<p>QB experts who backed Cam Ward as being a \u201clegit\u201d No. 1 pick love to keep saying how well he is throwing the ball despite all the stuff hitting the fan with the Titans. But Will Levis had the great arm and occasional \u201cwow\u201d throw, too. And he also didn\u2019t have great pocket presence and made a lot of mistakes.<\/p>\n<p>It will be impossible to evaluate Ward until the Titans overhaul a predictable offense, an underachieving offensive line and drop-happy receivers. Oh, and interim head coach Mike McCoy has been a conservative disaster. The Seahawks covered last week despite Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions. They\u2019ll finally lean on Kenneth Walker to roll here.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Seahawks\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-4) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/h2>\n<p>What a storyline this could be. The Raiders and minority owner Tom Brady passed on Shedeur Sanders seven times in the NFL Draft despite Brady being a mentor to the QB and signing him to an NIL deal to wear his merch in college. And now Sanders gets his first NFL start against the Raiders in Vegas.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s hard to pick the Raiders, but the Browns\u2019 offensive line stinks, and their receivers shouldn\u2019t be able to abuse a bad secondary. Plus, as good as rookie Quinshon Judkins is at running the ball, he is a disaster at pass blocking. Also, the mighty Browns\u2019 defense has been quite ordinary on the road.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Raiders\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/h2>\n<p>Last week, the Jaguars were one of my favorite picks of the season, and every fiber of my being says to fade them this week. But I don\u2019t actually get enough fiber in my diet, so \u2026 Trevor Lawrence didn\u2019t do much in that rout, so maybe he pulls his weight here.<\/p>\n<p>I will be able to tell my grandkids one day that I was there when Jacoby Brissett set an NFL record with 47 pass completions \u2026 and it wasn\u2019t that impressive. The 49ers were up big most of the game and played a soft zone to kill the clock. I might even make this a best bet.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Jaguars\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/h2>\n<p>The Eagles have won and covered the spread in four consecutive games while the nation mourns the underuse of A.J. Brown and lack of big runs from Saquon Barkley. They actually rank last in the NFL in average yards to go on third down this season (8.0). And now the Eagles are down right tackle Lane Johnson. Since 2013, Philadelphia ranks third in offensive EPA per play (+0.07) with Johnson on the field and 28th (-0.02) when he\u2019s not on the field. Yowza.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Cowboys\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/h2>\n<p>Remember when we said that the Falcons paying one QB $180 million while drafting another in the top eight was a fireable offense? Well, here we are. The Falcons still don\u2019t have a franchise quarterback, as Michael Penix Jr. faces a third knee surgery, and old man Kirk Cousins has looked terrible. And half of the playbook is out the window with Drake London out. The Falcons lose their sixth straight as Alvin Kamara continues to dust off the cobwebs and puts up his second straight 100-yard game.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Saints\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC<\/h2>\n<p>The Rams are the real deal. They have the fifth-best offense and third-best defense (by points per drive) and have played the third-hardest schedule. But they are coming off a huge win over the Seahawks and facing a desperate and getting-healthier Buccaneers team that has dropped three of four (to great teams) after starting 5-1. It was just three years ago that Mayfield showed up off the street and led the Rams to a dramatic win over the Raiders on national TV. It\u2019s time for some more Mayfield magic at Sofi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Buccaneers\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-7) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN<\/h2>\n<p>The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games when coming off a win. And while everyone was excited about Brock Purdy\u2019s return last week, the Niners still can\u2019t rush the passer without Nick Bosa (zero sacks on 57 passing attempts last week), their linebacker cupboard is bare and the secondary is pretty underwhelming. The Panthers have just enough on offense \u2014 like, barely \u2014 to stay within a touchdown.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The pick: Panthers\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Best bets: <\/strong>Can the 2-8 <strong>Saints<\/strong> really be a best bet? Yup. The Falcons hit the Wall in Berlin two weeks ago. Give me the <strong>Jaguars <\/strong>and<strong> Steelers,<\/strong> to win on the road against the Cardinals and Bears. And the <strong>Seahawks <\/strong>and<strong> Patriots<\/strong> make their layups against the Titans and Bengals, respectively.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): <\/strong>Duh. Mayfield and the <strong>Buccaneers<\/strong> +260.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014\u00a0<em>TruMedia research courtesy of<\/em> <em>Jason Starrett.\u00a0<\/em>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6819247\/2025\/11\/20\/nfl-week-12-picks-predictions-betting-2025\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Athletic has live coverage of Bills vs. Texans in NFL \u2018Thursday Night Football.\u2019 Still can\u2019t believe I saw Bo Nix outplay Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter of a tie game. But a lot has been hard to predict this season. Like Matthew Stafford getting epidurals in August and being the MVP favorite in &#8230; <a title=\"NFL Week 12 picks against the spread: Cowboys keep rolling, Chiefs keep skidding\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/?p=10525\" aria-label=\"Read more about NFL Week 12 picks against the spread: Cowboys keep rolling, Chiefs keep skidding\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/NFL-Week-12-picks-against-the-spread-Cowboys-keep-rolling.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10525"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10525\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10527,"href":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10525\/revisions\/10527"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10526"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jubi24.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}