If you are wondering whether Lattice Semiconductor is still worth buying after its big run, or if you are late to the party, this breakdown will unpack what the market might be pricing in and what it could be missing.
The stock has climbed 8.3% over the last week, 19.9% over the past month, and is now up 35.5% year to date, building on a 31.4% gain over the past year and a 79.6% gain over five years.
Recent momentum has been fueled by growing enthusiasm around Lattice’s low power FPGA chips in AI at the edge and data center infrastructure, alongside expanding partnerships with major OEMs that see its technology as a way to boost efficiency. At the same time, investors are debating whether this AI adjacency and design win pipeline can sustain growth that is strong enough to justify the share price after such a sharp rally.
Despite that optimism, our own valuation checks suggest Lattice scores just 0 out of 6 on undervaluation. We will walk through what different valuation methods are saying about the stock today and then finish with a more holistic way to think about what it is really worth.
Lattice Semiconductor scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today in dollar terms. For Lattice Semiconductor, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts from its last twelve months free cash flow of about $128 million and builds in robust growth expectations.
Analysts and internal estimates see free cash flow rising to around $205 million in 2026 and about $249 million by 2027, with further extrapolated growth taking projected free cash flow to roughly $437 million by 2035. All of these future figures are discounted back to reflect their value in today’s dollars, giving an estimated intrinsic value of about $31.27 per share.
Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is roughly 142.5% overvalued based on cash flow projections alone, suggesting that investors are paying well above what the model argues those future cash flows are worth.
For a profitable chip designer like Lattice Semiconductor, the price to sales (P/S) ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of revenue, especially when near term earnings can be distorted by investment cycles and stock based compensation.
In general, higher growth and lower risk justify a higher “normal” or “fair” sales multiple. Slower growth, cyclicality and balance sheet risk should pull that multiple down. Lattice currently trades on a rich 21.0x P/S, versus about 5.5x for the broader Semiconductor industry and roughly 11.4x for its peer group. This highlights how much optimism is already embedded in the price.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio, at about 9.0x P/S, estimates the multiple Lattice should trade on after accounting for its revenue growth outlook, profitability, industry dynamics, market cap and key risks. This company specific yardstick is more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison, because it adjusts for differences in growth, margins and risk profiles. Set against today’s 21.0x P/S, the Fair Ratio points to a stock that is significantly more expensive than what those fundamentals alone would warrant.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework where you describe the story you believe about a company and then connect that story to your assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, which in turn produces a Fair Value that you can compare to today’s share price. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, Narratives make this process accessible by guiding you to link the business story, your forecast, and the resulting valuation in one place, and then showing whether your Fair Value suggests Lattice Semiconductor is a buy, a hold, or a sell at the current market price. These Narratives update dynamically as new information such as earnings, guidance or major news comes in, so your Fair Value view stays current without you rebuilding your model from scratch. For example, one investor might see AI demand driving Lattice to a Fair Value of about $80 per share, while a more cautious investor, focused on competition and cyclicality, might land closer to $52, and Narratives help you clearly see which of those perspectives you agree with and why.
NasdaqGS:LSCC Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
