Many FPL managers flock toward the same template assets, but an advantage can be gained through well-selected differentials — players who have attractive fixtures, will play regularly over this period and possess various routes to points but remain under-owned.
If you’re looking to climb the rankings as we enter Gameweek 16 and the busiest stretch of the season, these five differentials could hold the key.
The under-owned talisman
Despite being one of the most reliable attackers in the Premier League over the past two completed seasons, with a combined 29 goals and 17 assists, Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) was owned by under six per cent of FPL managers at time of writing. The West Ham United forward has delivered points in his past two games (one goal and one assist respectively), lining him up as the perfect festive-period differential.
The biggest positive for Bowen is his minutes. He is one of the very few Premier League attackers who is virtually guaranteed to play 90 minutes in every match when fit and available. During December, when most FPL managers suffer from having players being unexpectedly benched by their Premier League counterparts, being able to rely on Bowen’s endurance is invaluable.
Even if West Ham blow hot and cold as a team, he remains their primary threat — he takes set pieces, is the one making runs behind the opposition defence and tends to be heavily involved in his side’s attacks
Best of all, most of West Ham’s upcoming fixtures look kind. In the next eight, they come up against Aston Villa (H), Manchester City (A), Fulham (H), Brighton & Hove Albion (H), Wolverhampton Wanderers (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Tottenham Hotspur (A) and Sunderland (H). Bowen can deliver double-digit returns at a time when many FPL squads will be stretched thin.
If you need a low-ownership option who can cover you through the rotation chaos of the Christmas programme, Bowen is one of the most dependable players available.
The forgotten forward
Another proven asset in this league with a low ownership (one per cent at time of writing).
After years of setbacks and inconsistency following the head injury in November 2020 that almost ended his career, Raul Jimenez (£6.2m) finally looked near his best last season, finishing with 12 goals and three assists in the league.
He has a goal and three assists since Gameweek 8, starting all seven of those fixtures while fellow striker Rodrigo Muniz (£5.4m) recovers from hamstring surgery. Muniz is expected back in early January but his rehabilitation could take longer. He will take time to build up match fitness having not played since early November, so Jimenez’s minutes look pretty secure for the coming weeks.
The Mexican is the clear first-choice striker at Fulham, the focal point of their attack and their designated penalty taker. His fixtures in December look pretty good too — the west Londoners play Burnley (A), Forest (H) and West Ham (A) in the next three.
Jimenez offers a way to differentiate your attack without sacrificing expected returns. If he keeps getting a good number of minutes, which he should, then he could rack up the points during this run. He might even end up being one of the festive schedule’s surprise success stories.
This weekend looks like an excellent entry point for him.
The wildcard with upside
Starting every game since Gameweek 2, Kevin Schade (£7.0m) has been one of Brentford’s most nailed-on attackers.
He is suspended this weekend having accumulated five yellow cards, but looks a fine option from Gameweek 17. His minutes should be even more secure, with Dango Ouattara (£6.0m) heading to the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) with Burkina Faso after Sunday’s home game against Leeds United.
Schade’s underlying numbers show promise — he has three goals and two assists with an expected goal (xG) involvement of 4.3. The German scored 11 Premier League goals last season from limited minutes (2,281, or the equivalent of just over 25 90-minute matches), so with more game time to come, he should do well again.
Kevin Schade scoring in Brentford’s 3-2 win against Liverpool in October (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
After Igor Thiago (£6.9m), he is Brentford’s biggest goal threat and looking at their upcoming fixtures, they should score a fair few. From Gameweek 17 to 23, they play Wolves (A), Bournemouth (H), Spurs (H), Everton (A), Sunderland (H), Chelsea (A) and Forest (H).
Scahde is the definition of a proactive differential pick — someone who could reward early adopters before the wider FPL community catches on. He is owned by 0.8 per cent of managers as I write this.
If you want an FPL midfielder who offers explosive potential at a very low ownership, he is one of the best punts out there.
The defensive gem
Most FPL managers chase defenders with strong potential for attacking returns during busy periods, but December and January are often about logging reliable clean sheets.
Piero Hincapie (£5.4m) presents one of the more intriguing differential defensive options. With Gabriel (£6.2m) out recovering from a thigh problem and no expected return date yet revealed, Hincapie should be nailed to start for Arsenal. Couple that with a potential William Saliba (£6.0m) injury, and the Ecuador centre-back might even become a longer-term option.
As the cheapest route into the league’s best defence, Hincapie has plenty of upside. He has started the league leaders’ past four games and hit the defensive-contributions points threshold in the most recent two. He also has more attacking potential than most give him credit for. In four completed seasons at previous club Bayer Leverkusen, he scored seven times and registered five assists.
In December, Arsenal play Wolves (H), Everton (A), Brighton (H) and Aston Villa (H). Despite their 2-1 away defeat against the latter on Saturday, their defensive record remains the most impressive in the league. They have only conceded nine goals in their 15 matches and boast an xG against of 9.52 (both the best in the division).
While many managers load up on more fashionable defensive assets, Hincapie offers a quieter, more calculated edge — the type of differential who can give you constant six-to-nine-point returns each gameweek when others are blanking or being rotated.
The fixture-friendly creator
Harry Wilson (£5.3m) presents FPL managers with so many reasons to buy him — cheap, nailed-on to start, good fixtures, on set-piece duties, goals and assists.
The 28-year-old Welshman showed with his goal in the 2-1 defeat against Crystal Palace on Sunday that he is in fine form. He will be absolutely certain to be in the Fulham line-up for the upcoming matches if fit, especially with Nigeria internationals Alex Iwobi (£6.4m) and Samuel Chukwueze (£5.3m) set to depart for AFCON after the weekend trip to Burnley.
Fulham’s fixtures (after Burnley, they host Forest and go to West Ham in their next two) give him plenty of opportunity to exploit three of the division’s leakiest defences, and his minutes have been strong enough to consider him a viable differential. With two goals and two assists in his previous two games, Wilson has the momentum. He has become one of Fulham’s most reliable options.
Wilson is also the type of low-risk player you can keep long term as your fifth midfielder, thanks to his low price.