The Titans entered Sunday winless at home this season and had the second-best chance of securing next year’s top pick. However, both of those outcomes changed while the Chiefs’ nightmare season continued to spiral. Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew left the game early with a knee injury, just one week after starter Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL, and now the Chiefs suddenly find themselves within range of a top-10 pick. (Their odds are about 52 percent, according to The Athletic’s NFL Simulator, with them projected to pick at No. 10.)
Tennessee (3-12) has won two of its last three games, with remaining matchups against the New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans’ odds of securing the No. 1 pick are less than 1 percent, and no combination of results alters those odds, according to the simulator. The Titans’ chances of selecting in the top five have even dipped to below 50 percent.
That’s because, with the New York Giants facing the Las Vegas Raiders next week in a battle of the league’s two remaining two-win teams, it is guaranteed that at least one team will finish the season with three wins. Even if the Titans lost their final two games to finish 3-14, their strength of schedule is significantly higher than the other potential three-win teams and thus they would lose the tiebreaker.
So, while Cam Ward won’t be welcoming another No. 1 pick to the Titans — or reaping the benefits of a trade — Tennessee is at least building a bit of late-season momentum for its franchise quarterback.
As a reminder, the draft order presented here is based on Austin Mock’s projection model, which includes where each team is expected to finish this season rather than how the draft order currently stacks up. Also worth noting: The Arizona Cardinals are still technically in the mix for the top pick. Similar to the Titans, their strength of schedule is high enough that they are unlikely to win any tiebreakers, though their odds to maintain a top-five pick are about 73 percent.
Let’s take a look at how teams still in the running for No. 1 fared in Week 16.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)
One week after being shut out 31-0 against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Raiders put up a good fight against the Houston Texans. The 23-21 loss was the Raiders’ closest game since they lost by 1 point against the Jaguars in overtime. Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty had the best game of his young career, scoring both a rushing and receiving touchdown of 50 or more yards.
The Raiders still have the best odds of securing the No. 1 pick, though their odds have dipped and are basically even with the Giants. The model has generally viewed the Giants as stronger than the rest of this group in the mix for the top pick, though that seems to have changed after New York’s latest loss.
The Giants and the Raiders meet Sunday in Las Vegas in what will be a huge swing game. A Raiders loss would bump their odds to about 62 percent, while a win would knock them to about 4 percent. The Raiders also have a Week 18 game against the Chiefs — now down to their third-string quarterback — that could loom dangerous for fans who are dreaming of the top pick.
Remaining schedule: vs. New York Giants, vs. Kansas City Chiefs
New York Giants (2-13)
The Giants are on a nine-game losing streak and haven’t won since early October. Their latest 16-13 result against the Minnesota Vikings gave their No. 1 pick odds a big boost and the model now views them as virtually the same as the Raiders.
The Vikings’ defense completely shut down rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart and the Giants’ offense. Their 141 yards of offense were by far their lowest total of the season, and Dart finished with just 33 yards on 7-of-13 passing. A top pick in next year’s draft would be a rare highlight after a frustrating season for the Giants and help them turn the page under a new coach. The Giants fired Brian Daboll in November.
An all-important game in Las Vegas next week could decide who makes the first pick. If the Giants lose, their No. 1 pick odds launch to about 67 percent. If they win, the odds tank to less than 1 percent. Like the Raiders, their path to the top pick is rather clear: Lose the last two games, and the No. 1 pick is theirs.
Remaining schedule: at Las Vegas Raiders, vs. Dallas Cowboys
New York Jets (3-12)
In their first game since firing defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, the Jets’ defense showed progress. They (barely) broke their two-game skid of allowing more than 30 points, but the offense was a completely different story in the 29-6 loss to the New Orleans Saints. The Saints (5-10) were previously in the running for the top pick, but a three-game winning streak has eliminated them from contention.
The Jets’ odds for the top pick boosted slightly after Sunday’s result, but still rank last among the teams in the running.
Remaining schedule: vs. New England Patriots, at Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns (3-12)
The Browns’ 23-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills was far from their worst showing of the season. But an offense that has struggled all year continued to come up short and miss opportunities to take control. Cleveland will also now be without rookie running back Quinshon Judkins, who was carted off the field in the second quarter with a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula.
The loss boosted Cleveland’s No. 1 pick odds by about 12 percent. If they lose their remaining two games and the Giants and Raiders each win one game, the Browns are expected earn the top pick by the strength of schedule tiebreaker.
Remaining schedule: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, at Cincinnati Bengals