Final Ohio State thoughts and a prediction before Miami: What’s changed after long layoff?

ARLINGTON, Texas — When Cotton Bowl media availability began Monday, Jeremiah Smith unsurprisingly drew the biggest scrum of reporters. Not far behind was Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline.

Hartline, who has already taken over as the new head coach at South Florida, is still with Ohio State through the College Football Playoff and didn’t want to talk about his new job during media day. In his first time talking to Ohio State reporters since accepting the USF job, Hartline said his focus has been completely on the Buckeyes over the past two weeks.

How different is his role? Hartline said it remains mostly intact, even though head coach Ryan Day said he is taking over play-calling duties.

“It’s not a whole lot different,” Hartline said. “Really coach Day kind of made some comments on making sure I’m good, he’s trying to look after me. … Some guys are trying to step up a little more from a day-to-day standpoint, maybe a little bit, but not much has changed.”

Hartline, who has been in the booth all season, said if he had it his way, he would be on the field for the game. He enjoys being on the field with his players, though he said he would leave that decision up to Day, who confirmed Tuesday that Hartline will be on the sideline, with tight ends coach Keenan Bailey helping from the box.

“Whether it be (Day) calling plays from 2017 until now, nothing has changed,” Hartline said. “I would say this year there’s been less yelling, which is a good sign. We’ve always been collaborative. We’ve always worked together. Coach Day has always had a major impact on all of this. In my mind, nothing has changed.”

No. 2 Ohio State is set to play No. 10 Miami in Wednesday’s Cotton Bowl at 7:30 p.m. ET, hoping to make up for its 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten title game and advance to the Fiesta Bowl semifinal against the winner of Georgia versus Ole Miss.

Here are a few more thoughts ahead of kickoff:

Ohio State’s multiple personnel

Related to play calling, Ohio State’s personnel groupings have become a talking point after the Buckeyes went heavy in the red zone against Indiana and ended the game with just one touchdown in four trips inside the 20.

Hartline joked that Ohio State should “always go light,” before adding: “It’s not what we want to do. We want to stress out their defense. …  I think that when we get into the red zone and we have opportunities, that some of our tight ends are mismatches. So you want to use those guys in those ways.”

Those expecting Ohio State to completely go away from 14 (one back, four tight ends) or 13 (one back, three tight ends) personnel groupings in the red zone are likely going to be disappointed on Wednesday. There are still reasons to use them, though I’d expect Ohio State to try to spread Miami out more often than not.

I’ve long believed that Ohio State’s best personnel grouping this year is its 12 group, with two receivers (often Smith and Carnell Tate) and two tight ends (often Max Klare and Will Kacmarek). Klare has become a much better blocker in the second half of the season, and Kacmarek has developed into a strong pass catcher. That grouping allows Ohio State to get Smith and Tate involved while also being unpredictable with its rushing attack and play-action game.

I’d expect a lot of 11 and 12 personnel on Wednesday, especially in the red zone, but in short-yardage situations, don’t be surprised if Ohio State turns to its 14 or 13 group. The offense isn’t going to just get rid of something it’s worked on all year.

EPA refers to expected points added per play, according to TruMedia

What’s going on at guard?

In the College Football Playoff, teams are required to publish an availability report every day for the three days leading up to the game. The first one came out Sunday evening, and starting right guard Tegra Tshabola was listed as doubtful for the game.

He’s not expected to play, despite practicing leading up to the Cotton Bowl, and when Ohio State listed its starters at the media day table, Gabe VanSickle and Josh Padilla were together. Everything is a tactic in college sports — that was Ohio State trying not to tip its hand on who will start on Wednesday — but it’s likely going to be VanSickle.

The sophomore guard went in during the second half against Indiana and played well. He did not give up a sack and on film looked both physically and mentally prepared for the occasion. With three and a half weeks to prepare for the Cotton Bowl, he’s going to step in as a starter and be tasked with slowing down one of the best defensive lines in college football.

Watch VanSickle on film, and you can see why Ohio State is so excited about him, even though he hasn’t started a game this season. When he’s tasked with being a pulling guard, he picks up and targets defenders well and can identify looping blitzers well.

That’s not to say VanSickle is perfect; he’ll likely lose some battles if he’s left one-on-one with some of Miami’s defensive linemen. Whereas Tshabola struggled with knowing who to block, VanSickle does not have that issue. That’s enough to give Ohio State a serviceable right guard to build a game plan with.

First-round bye impact

Ohio State has had nearly a month to stew on its Big Ten championship loss to Indiana. The 25-day layoff isn’t much different from last year’s 21 days between a loss to Michigan and a first-round game against Tennessee, but the first-round bye adds another layer to this Playoff.

Last year, every team with a first-round bye was an underdog in the quarterfinals and lost. That will not be the case this year, as Ohio State is going into the Cotton Bowl as a 9.5-point favorite against Miami. The Athletic’s projections give Ohio State a 73 percent chance of winning

“It’s about making sure we keep our edge,” cornerback Jermaine Mathews Jr. said. “That’s the main thing coach Day was trying to get across to the guys, making sure we keep our edge and make sure that we’re practicing the way we need to practice.”

Ohio State has stuck with the routine that helped it get out to a 12-1 record heading into the Playoff. As with any game, there have been things to correct in practice, but there’s no more to prove for an Ohio State team that spent most of the season ranked No. 1.

“It’s not about having more to prove, but it’s a chip on our shoulder,” Mathews said. “(Indiana) left a bad taste in our mouth, so that has thrown more onto the fire, but it’s the same goal that we had when we started this thing: beat the team up north, win the Big Ten and win a national championship. We didn’t get the Big Ten done, so we just go on to the next goal.”

Day said the past few weeks have felt like the preseason to him.

“It’s been chippy the past few days. They’re tired of practicing against each other,” Day said. “They’re barking at each other in practice, almost getting like the preseason again. So, that’s a good sign. That means we’re ready to go hit somebody else. These guys are highly, highly motivated, and they know that sometimes the most difficult game is the first one in the Playoff. And so that’s been our focus, starting really fast in this game and playing for 60 minutes.”

Prediction

Miami’s defensive line is a unit that can wreck the Cotton Bowl if Ohio State doesn’t have a good plan for it. I tend to believe that Day, with three and a half weeks of preparation, will have an answer for what Miami can do up front. I expect the Hurricanes will be able to make things difficult for Ohio State up front at times and keep this one relatively close, but a late Smith touchdown breaks this one open for the Buckeyes.

Final score: Ohio State 27, Miami 13