Season series: Tied 2-2
The Reds have dropped 9 of their last 13 games, opening the series Monday with a 4-3 loss in 10 innings that snapped a 2-game winning streak. CF TJ Friedl and LF Austin Hays both homered, and SP Nick Lodolo threw 5 scoreless innings. But after he exited, the Padres plated 3 runs in the sixth and then walked it off in the 10th. Cincinnati now sits 4 games out of the final Wild Card spot.
The Padres, meanwhile, are second in the NL West, just 1 game back of the LA Dodgers, and hold the second NL Wild Card spot. They’ve won 3 straight after a 5-game skid. SP Yu Darvish gave up 3 runs in 5 2/3 innings, but the bullpen locked it down with 4 1/3 scoreless frames, allowing only 1 hit. DH Gavin Sheets went 3-for-3 with 2 doubles and an RBI, and OF Fernando Tatis Jr. delivered the game-winning sacrifice fly in the 10th.
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Reds at Padres projected starters
RHP Zack Littell vs. RHP Michael King
Littell (9-8, 3.81 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 165 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 13-9 home loss to the Toronto Blue Jays last Wednesday
- Last start vs. Padres (April 27 while a member of the Tampa Bay Rays: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 4-2 win in San Diego
- Career vs. Padres: 2-0, 4.98 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.94 WHIP, 4.5 K/9 in 1 start, 18 relief appearances
King (4-2, 2.81 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 57 2/3 innings.
- Is coming off IL (knee) and makes first start since Aug. 9
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 5-4 10-inning win at home over the Boston Red Sox on Aug. 9
- Career vs. Reds: 2-0, 2.53 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.75 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 1 start, 3 relief appearances
Reds at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-140) | Padres -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Reds at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Reds 4
The Reds have lost Littell’s last 4 starts. He has a 6.91 ERA and has allowed 7 HRs in his last 3 outings.
The Reds are 32-38 on the road this season and 36-41 vs. teams above .500, while the Padres are 44-25 at Petco Park.
The Padres should win their fourth straight game, but -190 odds aren’t the value you can get with the run line.
PASS.
Eleven of the Padres’ last 14 victories have been by more than 1 run. The Reds have had 2 consecutive 1-run losses, but 8 of their last 10 losses have been by 2 or more runs.
The Padres are 24-30 ATS as home favorites, and the Reds are 32-19 ATS as away underdogs. Cincinnati also covered the run line in its series-opening loss.
BET PADRES -1.5 (+115).
Five of Littell’s 6 starts since coming to the Reds have had more than 8 total runs. Six of the Reds’ last 8 games overall have had 9 or more total runs.
Three of the Padres’ last 4 wins have had more than 8 total runs.
BET OVER 7.5 (-120).
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