WTA Indian Wells Day 6 Predictions
Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal
Head-to-head: first meeting
Sonay Kartal made the round of 16 here last year as a lucky loser and, so she’s familiar with these courts. She’s been a breakout story again this year, upsetting 20th seed Emma Navarro 6-1 3-6 7-6 in the second round, rallying from a mid-match back issue to dominate the tie-break. The big question is her physical condition after needing a medical timeout.
Madison Keys, meanwhile, delivered a composed performance against Diane Parry, landing 76% of first serves and saving eight of nine break points. Her powerful baseline game and big serving represent a clear step up in level for Kartal. If Kartal’s back holds, she can create issues, but Keys’ clean striking and affinity for this surface should prevail.
Prediction: Keys in 2
Elise Mertens vs Belinda Bencic
Head-to-head: Bencic 1–0 Mertens
Belinda Bencic started 2026 in fine fashion, winning all five of her United Cup singles matches, though she exited early in Melbourne and Dubai. She reached the last eight here in 2025, showing she can go deep in the desert. Elise Mertens remains one of the tour’s most consistent and tactically sharp players, rarely handing matches away. Their lone prior meeting was five years ago and both have evolved. With every indication pointing at a potential close match. Mertens’ hard-court reliability and ability to grind could shine, but Bencic’s recent momentum, clean win over Storm Hunter, and hard-court pedigree give her the slight advantage.
Prediction: Bencic in 3
Jessica Pegula vs Jelena Ostapenko
Head-to-head: Pegula 3–2 Ostapenko
Jessica Pegula extended her winning streak to six with a victory over Donna Vekic and has reached at least the semis in her last seven WTA events – in short, she’s in career-best form. Her ability to redirect pace and stay composed under fire is ideal against Jelena Ostapenko’s explosive style. The Latvian remains dangerous (she beat Pegula 6-4 6-2 in Beijing 2023), capable of overwhelming anyone on a hot day with flat aggression. However, Pegula thrives in faster conditions, holds the head-to-head edge, and can absorb and neutralize power. Ostapenko’s hard-court inconsistency contrasts with Pegula’s current run.
Prediction: Pegula in 2
Elena Rybakina vs Marta Kostyuk
Head-to-head: Rybakina 3–1 Kostyuk
Elena Rybakina, the 2023 champion, survived a tough test against Hailey Baptiste, saving three set points in the opener but showing she’s still rebuilding after a Dubai retirement. Kostyuk, a former semi-finalist here, cruised past Taylor Townsend and remains a tricky, competitive opponent who mixes shots effectively. Rybakina dominates their head-to-head, and when her serve and forehand click on these courts, few can compete. Her recent three-setter hints at lingering physical questions, but her class and desert history should carry her through.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3
Main photo credit: Jay Calderon/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images