Neither is much interested in talking about moral victories after Monday night’s 31-28 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
“The stat part doesn’t matter. It’s the points,” Reid said. “You’ve got to score more than the other team.”
“At the end of the day, it’s all about winning,” Mahomes said. “And so I think if we can start making those winning plays, that’s the last step that we need in order to take our offense to the next step.”
The Chiefs are in a fascinating position. They’re off to a disappointing 2-3 start, which puts them at least in some danger of missing the playoffs with a challenging schedule ahead.
And yet, look under the hood at some of the Chiefs’ advanced stats, and things … actually look pretty good? With the potential to get even better with receiver Rashee Rice returning from NFL suspension next week?
Let’s take a closer look at what some deeper numbers are saying. Here are four reasons the Chiefs should be optimistic about what could be ahead this season.
1. Chiefs’ offense is turning possessions into points
Perhaps one of the underrated storylines of this Chiefs season is how the offense has largely avoided negative plays.
Yes, Mahomes’ pick-six against Jacksonville is the glaring and notable exception. But the Chiefs have turned the ball over just twice this season, with the other one coming on a pass that deflected off tight end Travis Kelce’s hands against the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Chiefs’ running backs have yet to lose a fumble this season. Mahomes, meanwhile, hasn’t coughed up the ball in five games, either.
And all that leads to an interesting stat regarding the Chiefs’ offense. According to TruMedia, the team has scored points on 51 percent of its offensive possessions in 2025 — a total that ranks third in the NFL.
That number is significantly better than the team’s previous three offenses, and each of those teams ultimately made it to the Super Bowl.
| Year | Drive score% |
|---|---|
|
2022 |
46% |
|
2023 |
39% |
|
2024 |
43% |
|
2025 |
51% |
Something else to consider: This percentage would even be higher if normally reliable kicker Harrison Butker hadn’t already missed three field goal attempts.
It’s a long way of saying that the Chiefs offense is trending toward elite status — and that’s even before Rice returns next week as one of the team’s top playmakers.
2. Patrick Mahomes is balling
If you were told before the season that the Chiefs had started 2-3, you probably would have thought something had gone terribly wrong with the passing offense.
Perhaps the young left side of the offensive line was struggling, which was causing Mahomes to play rushed. Or maybe you would have thought Mahomes had gotten injured, which would be a catastrophic development for any Chiefs season.
The strange thing is … none of that has happened. In fact, quite the opposite.
Mahomes has been the best he’s looked in quite some time — so much so that, as of Wednesday, he ranks second in betting markets for current NFL MVP odds.
At this point, Mahomes is accomplishing nearly every offseason objective he set for himself. He’s throwing the ball downfield more, raising his air yards per attempt from 6.3 yards last year to 8.5 yards this season, according to TruMedia.
That’s an even more drastic shift than it might seem. After ranking 33rd out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in that stat last season, Mahomes now ranks third out of 33 qualified QBs. In other words, he’s completely flipped his style of play from one season to the next.
Mahomes has also followed through on a vow to give his receivers more chances, upping his tight-window throw rate from 10 percent last season to 15 percent in 2025.
He’s done all that while avoiding turnovers and sacks. Oh, and thanks to his scrambling ability, he’s the Chiefs’ leading rusher through five weeks with 190 yards.
The biggest key to the Chiefs winning over the past eight seasons has been Mahomes playing at the top of his abilities. And right now, Kansas City appears to be getting an ascending Mahomes — a great sign as the team looks to overcome three early losses.
3. Vegas loves K.C.
Perhaps the best way to gauge true team strength is to look to sportsbooks, which have to put money behind their football opinions.
At this point, those folks view the Chiefs as one of the elite teams in the NFL, despite their current record.
NFL analyst Ben Baldwin compiles a Vegas-based look at teams each week, creating an NFL power ranking based on betting markets while cross-comparing game lines.
The Chiefs rank as the league’s third-best team, according to that methodology, while estimated to be 4.7 points better than an average NFL team on a neutral field. Only Green Bay and Philadelphia are higher, indicating that sportsbooks still consider the Chiefs the AFC’s top squad on a neutral field.
Week 5 Objective NFL Power Rankings
If your power ranking doesn’t still have the Chiefs in the top 5, are you even trying?
(note: Rams too high here because they play the no-Lamar Ravens next) pic.twitter.com/DJVv2SBuTx
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 8, 2025
Even through their struggles, the Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites over the 4-1 Detroit Lions for Sunday’s home game.
Some quick math can also help us determine this: If the Chiefs maintain their current trajectory, they are likely to be underdogs in only one more game during the regular season.
Home-field advantage in the NFL is worth about 1.5 points. So using Baldwin’s sportsbook-based power rankings, Kansas City would figure to be about a one-point underdog for its Nov. 2 road game against the Buffalo Bills.
Outside of that, however, the Chiefs should have better than 50 percent odds to win every other game this season. That’s a good spot to be in when trying to make up ground in the standings.
4. Chiefs are healthy
Kansas City doesn’t have to look far to see how injuries can derail an NFL contender’s season.
The Chiefs took advantage of a depleted Baltimore Ravens team two weeks ago to come away with a convincing 37-20 home win.
And though this certainly is a knock-on-wood statement for the Chiefs, through five weeks, it’s amazing how healthy the roster has remained, especially considering the Chiefs have had extended Super Bowl postseason runs each of the last three years.
On Wednesday, every player on the Chiefs’ active roster was a full participant in practice. And though receiver Xavier Worthy was feared to have suffered a significant shoulder injury in Week 1, he returned two weeks ago and immediately reclaimed his high-volume role.
Some returning role players could also help. Might the Chiefs have defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars if rookie defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott (shoulder) had been able to give the team some more pass-rush juice? Or if cornerback Kristian Fulton (ankle) had been able to contribute even a little to a pass defense that wasn’t able to make the one big play it needed to late?
One of the biggest question marks heading into the season for the Chiefs was the team’s depth behind its star players. That won’t be an issue in the short term, at least, as Kansas City enters this portion of its schedule with its roster in excellent shape.