The Tulsa Golden Hurricane couldn’t come through for us last week, dropping our ‘Ugly Underdogs’ to 4-2 as we hit the halfway point of the college football season. It’s been quite a ride to this point, but things will only get uglier as we head down the stretch. As for this week, we’re headed to Oxford, the literary center of the South, for a showdown between Ole Miss and Washington State.
The biggest spread on the board in Week 7 comes in the most peculiar matchup of the weekend. It’s hard to see any sense in a matchup between No. 4 Ole Miss and Washington State in the heart of the SEC season, but college football often throws up these zany encounters when you least expect them.
For Washington State, it’s an opportunity to do something they rarely get the chance to do anymore: Make an impact on the College Football Playoff picture.
It’s been a pretty dour scene in Pullman ever since the Cougars were abandoned by the Pac-12 siblings during the great college football schism a few years back.
A once proud program, Wazzu has been wandering around the landscape as an independent for the last two years, making it really hard to recruit or attract the type of donations that the Power 4 programs receive from boosters.
Considering their lot in life these days, 2024 was actually a pretty promising year for the Cougars. They went 8-5 and earned a trip to the Holiday Bowl against Syracuse.
Unfortunately, the Power 4 schools noticed the Cougars punching above their weight. That led to quarterback John Mateer transferring to Oklahoma, where he’s now a Heisman candidate, and head coach Jake Dickert moving to Wake Forest.
That meant that Washington State was essentially starting from scratch for the second year in a row.
Washington State vs. Ole Miss odds, prediction
The results in 2025 have been bizarre.
The Cougars barely got by Idaho, trounced San Diego State and then got obliterated by North Texas.
Wazzu then got crushed by Washington, 59-24, in the Apple Cup, but responded with a clinical win over Colorado State on the road, sending the Cougars to Oxford with a 3-2 record.
If you looked at their first five games before the season, you’d probably guess they’d wind up at 3-2, but the path they’ve taken to get to this very ordinary record has been nothing short of funky.
Let’s hope things get even more zany when the Cougars travel to Ole Miss as 32.5-point underdog Saturday.
When you’re dealing with a mismatch like this, handicapping is going to be as much an art as a science.
The tale of the tape between these two teams screams mismatch, but it’s the situational spot that should give you some hope that the Cougars can keep this competitive.
First of all, this is Wazzu’s Super Bowl. The Cougars will be playing the No. 4 team in the country in a packed SEC barn. This is their last, and really only, chance to really make an impact on the season.
For Ole Miss, this is a tune-up game. The Rebels are coming off a bye after beating LSU in a massive showdown, and they’ve got trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on deck.
Lane Kiffin is not shy about running up the score, but you have to imagine that even he will be happy to get out to a big lead and put the handbrake on to keep his starters healthy and fresh.
Betting on College Football?
That should lead to a run-heavy approach from Ole Miss, at least in the second half, which will keep the clock moving. That’s always good news for big underdogs.
And finally, we should have some confidence that Washington State will be able to find some success against Ole Miss, which has had some issues stopping the run this season. One or two big plays are all we’re asking.
Washington State is right to be a massive underdog Saturday. The statistical matchup between these two teams is not close.
However, given the schedule spot and factoring in the motivational angle, you can see a path where the Cougars are up for the challenge of keeping this one within five scores, while Ole Miss is not as bothered.
The Play: Washington State +31.5 ( -105, BetMGM)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.