Mirra Andreeva, Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina are separated by only 407 points in the WTA Race standings. One of them will finish outside the top eight and be designated as the first alternate in Riyadh.
All three are in the draw for China’s AUX Ningbo Open, where play begins on Monday. Crucially, this event offers 500 points to the winner. Paolini and Rybakina are also scheduled to play the following week in the Toray Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo, Japan, the final 500 tournament on the calendar.
Jessica Pegula’s quarterfinal win over Katerina Siniakova in Wuhan, coupled with Rybakina’s loss to Aryna Sabalenka, officially qualified Pegula. It’s her fourth straight appearance at the year-end championships.
Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova and Madison Keys qualified ahead of Pegula.
Here’s a closer look at the battle for the remaining spots:
Who can qualify
No. 7 Mirra Andreeva
Race points: 4,320
2025 record: 40-15, 2 titles (Dubai, Indian Wells)
The skinny: After winning back-to-back WTA 1000 events and reaching the quarterfinals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, the teenager looked like a sure thing for Riyadh, but there’s been some recent growing pains for the 18-year-old. She’s 4-4 since Wimbledon — and 2-2 in China. Andreeva is the top seed in Ningbo but has a tough draw. She could see Emma Raducanu in her first match and No. 7 seed Diana Shnaider or the winner between Karolina Muchova and Marketa Vondrousova in the second.
Put simply, if Andreeva wins the title this week, she’s in. But the picture gets more complicated from there, with Rybakina’s results likely to shape how the final spots shake out. For instance, a first-round loss by Rybakina would also send Andreeva through.
No. 8 Jasmine Paolini
Race points: 4,131
2025 record: 35-11, 1 title (Rome)
The skinny: Paolini closed the gap with a semifinal run in Wuhan before falling to Gauff, 6-4, 6-3. Seeded No. 2 in Ningbo, she’ll open against either Veronika Kudermetova or wild card Zhang Shuai.
Another semifinal, as long as Elena Rybakina isn’t her opponent, would likely secure qualification; a final would guarantee it.
No. 9 Elena Rybakina
Race points: 3,913
2025 record: 47-19, 1 title (Strasbourg)
The skinny: Elena Rybakina was upset in Beijing’s third round by Eva Lys and went quietly in the Wuhan quarterfinals, losing 6-3, 6-3 to Aryna Sabalenka. The No. 3 seed this week, she opens against the winner of Victoria Mboko and Dayana Yastremska.
As it stands, Rybakina cannot qualify this week. She would need to reach at least the semifinals to earn additional race points. A title run could move her ahead of Paolini if Paolini fails to reach the semifinal, though Rybakina would still trail Mirra Andreeva.
Alternate race
No. 10 Ekaterina Alexandrova
Race points: 3,158
2025 record: 43-22, 1 title (Linz)
The skinny: Playing both Ningbo and Tokyo, she’s in the best position to secure the second alternate spot. Alexandrova, 30, makes her Top 10 debut Monday, making her the third-oldest player to make her WTA Top 10 debut behind only Roberta Vinci (33) and Betty Stove (31).
No. 11 Clara Tauson
Race points: 2,770
2025 record: 36-21, 1 title (Auckland)
The skinny: Also scheduled to play both Ningbo and Tokyo, Tauson is the No. 5 seed and will play qualifier Ajla Tomljanovic in Ningbo’s first round.
No. 14 Belinda Bencic
Race points: 2,469
2025 record: 32-16, 1 title (Abu Dhabi)
The skinny: With No. 12 Elina Svitolina out for the season and No. 13 Emma Navarro withdrawing, Bencic moves next in line. The 28-year-old mother plans to play both of the final two weeks, beginning as the No. 6 seed against Magda Linette. To reach an alternate spot, Bencic would likely need back-to-back finals and a title at one of the remaining WTA 500 events.